The Real Estate Market - 2011-2012 Real Estate Predictions: National and Local Market Predictions, Certified Appraisals for loans, estate, tax, listing, any reason,Locally, Palm Springs, Palm Desert, Indian Wells, Rancho Mirage, La Quinta and Southern California in general.

Barry Noble's Blog

In response to a question after my last Blog on Predictions

October 17th, 2007 5:15 PM

In response to an inquiry asking about a free opinion of value of a specific type property in one of the major Coachella Valley cities, I offered this general response:

An appraiser may not offer his or her opinion of the estimated Current Market Value of a specific property without following it up with a formal written appraisal, and that is my profession. I can offer opinions of the general Market (further down). It's kind of like asking a doctor what is wrong with you from some symptoms, at a party and expecting a diagnosis and cure. He'll tell you "Come to my office on Monday." or "See your doctor." From the appraisal point of view, another example, an appraiser at a party cannot offer his opinion of the neighbor's house value sight and site unseen - without following it up with an appraisal. State regulations - see the State of California Office of Real Estate Appraisers (OREA) website.

Among other types of appraisals, I offer "Listing" appraisals - and it is a very good idea for sellers to obtain an appraisal estimate from a professional - especially if the property value is notably higher than the City median value. If you go out too high with a listing, you so waste your time and that of the broker and time & effort is expensive - with months on the MLS, people occasionally traipsing thru your home and soon, a "stale" listing and no sale. On the other hand, you might list too low (though I doubt it in a notably declining market) and that would be a mistake too. Don't fall into the trap of eager agent Comparative Market Analyses - showing a high listing, only to be told, after they've signed you up for 6 months, and after about a month, the value must be dropped drastically to perhaps find some buyer interest. (Of course, not all agents over-value for listing presentations).

The following are general comments and should not and may not be construed as an appraisal value of a specific property or neighborhood. They are general comments on real estate markets in the Palm Springs area.

This down cycle is normal and may last through 2008 and (I believe at this time) well into 2009 and beyond. The last down cycle, after properties reached an inflationary high in 1989/90 - lasted from late 1990 through 1995, then stabilized low, for a while before the normal rising cycle angled up again Our latest rise in value has again reached inflated values, and they will trend down until a Market comfort level and stabilize at a low again before climbing again and perhaps rising 30% over the past, second quarter 2007 high.

In general, appraisals that might have been "good" for 4 to 6 months in a rising Market, will be good for about 2 months in a declining Market - though, for a listing appraisal, I usually predict 6 months out - and may offer an opinion of the estimated Current Market Value as of the date of value and inspection, and in an aside (letter) opine on what the value might be as the market declines, in six months. If you list high now, it will only get worse month by the month, in a Market Decline.

"I don't want to pay for an appraisal at this time." (the potential seller wrote). With that in mind, I won't need your address.

A general view of the described portion of your city and value range/type of property is - properties that had been originally listed earlier in 2007 in the 900,000-1,200,000 - most remain unsold and are becoming "stale" entries in the MLS, and after 170 to 350 days of listing -their asking prices appear in many instances to have been dropped already 20-25%, and (hint) that is probably not enough of a reduction for the current Market. I am not a feel good, tell you what you want to hear person - I tell the truth, I am extremely detailed and accurate and honest appraiser - and must offer one friendly warning - in my opinion, barring a major unforeseen and unexpected economic change - values in your area may be dramatically lower in May '08 than they are, even now ......and, then, may still be dropping as what semblance of the "season" will have ended and most buyers in that range will have already left.

Good luck. barry@PalmSpringsCA.net

Posted by Barry Noble on October 17th, 2007 5:15 PMPost a Comment (0)

Subscribe to this blog